;
The three signs traders are watching to signal the stock market has bottomed https://cnb.cx/3BKLG6y
MORGAN STANLEY: "Can You Hear Me Now?.. It appears investors have finally gotten the message .. with a Fed pivot now undeniably off the table,.. We remain highly convicted.. the bear market in stocks will not be over until the S&P 500 reaches the range of .. 3000-3400.." [Wilson]
CITI: Fed is increasingly using its voice as a policy tool.. we need to acknowledge the impact that.. may have on.. behavior. [It] causes us to rethink our view toward a severe recession.. To this point, we have given it a 5% probability,.. lower than a mild recession base case."
JPMORGAN: “iPhone demand remains quite elevated for the Pro models but weaker for the base models relative to a year ago, with 14 Pro and Pro Max lead times tracking in line .. demand for the Apple Watch Ultra remains robust.” $AAPL
UBS: Our data suggests “Lyft's Driver app usage has leveled off at a much lower levels versus Uber's app .. we think $LYFT will under-grow the market. We also think 4Q guidance will be below consensus ests.”
Cuts to Neutral, $16 target (prior $50)
A majority of commodities are falling month to date.
(via @LizAnnSonders) #inflation
Should you be doing IDs at all & is it a sustainable approach is a whole other question, but putting that aside, if you're going to do ID systems as a publisher, freaking think your approach through and don't just dump more scripts on the page. Don't make the same mistakes again!
*existing cases considered
So the only ID systems that could possibly be effective (maybe!?) are the ones where publishers actively are sending user emails from logins. If you're doing that then you don't need an on page script! You should be generating those IDs server-side. No heavy scripts needed!
Third: the ID scripts that are harvesting ID information automatically from form fields are only capturing new users and are likely, existing cases, to be considered illegal wiretapping for using that technique!
Second: the ones dependent on being on page to do fingerprinting are relying on a technique that does not work and is in the process of actively having browsers apply countermeasures.
First: any system that promises to generate IDs automatically with just a script is just using 3p cookies anyway and has no plan.
How do publishers keep making the same exact mistakes with ad tech over and over again? This didn't need to happen!
"death by a thousand paper cuts". top headline.
https://digiday.com/media/death-by-a-thousand-paper-cuts-publishers-fret-over-alternative-id-overload-hurting-site-performance/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=digidaydis&utm_source=daily&utm_content=220926
"even the best studies may underestimate long covid’s impact because racism and sexism within the medical system have left some people undiagnosed" https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/09/20/1059679/racial-disparities-of-long-covid/
Lowest since Jan 6.
@CNBC #OOTT
“.. It was the first monthly decline in rent since December 2020 ..”
@WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/rents-drop-for-first-time-in-two-years-after-climbing-to-records-11664135107
“We have 67,000 more workers today than we had in February 2020,” said Chad Moutray, the chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers. “I didn’t think we would get there, to be honest with you.”
@nytimes @jimtankersley
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/business/factory-jobs-workers-rebound.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
BTIG: “.. a tradable bottom is nearing. .. While there will be some talk of a double bottom at the June lows, an undercut that gets closer to the 200-Week Moving Average (3,585) makes sense to us.” - @jkrinskypga
Top of the US charts today in 1982: “Jack & Diane.”
The song “gave me the keys to do what I want,” @johnmellencamp once said. “I've lived the way I wanted to live, sometimes recklessly and stupidly, but .. that's what Jack and Diane gave me.”
@UltChart
GOLDMAN: Our year-end S&P target is 3600, but “if investors price a recession, we expect 2023 EPS would decline by 11% and S&P 500 would fall to 3150.” [Kostin] $SPX
“Excess cash and other liquid assets now stand at some $3.3T in the household sector, and about $300B in the corporate sector; that’s just over 14% of GDP, more than enough to swamp the impact of tighter financial conditions, if it is spent.” @pantheonmacro
Huh. How long have those been there
#Kirk
PAULSON: “Today, the average bank is probably 9% equity .. So we’re not at risk of a collapse today in the financial system like we were before. Yeah, it’s true, housing may be a little frothy .. prices may come down .. but not to the extent it happened.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-25/john-paulson-on-frothy-us-housing-market-this-time-is-different
Things are getting worse, chapter 263: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/25/europe-holds-its-breath-as-italy-prepares-to-vote-in-far-right-leader-giorgia-meloni
“completion.” 😏
DeVonta Smith's 45-yard reception from Jalen Hurts had a completion probability of 8.1%, the most improbable completion so far this season.
🔹 Air Distance: 58.7 yds
🔹 Sideline Distance: 0.5 yds
The pass was also Hurts' longest completion of his career.
#PHIvsWAS | @Eagles
The problem with data analysis for decision making is you can get data to answer any question... but it can't really get you to ask the right questions. It's like we've talked about with a/b tests, they can be useful, but also false assurance when you've missed the answer was c.
It's worth noting the way data analysis is used by big companies shows that it's great at confirming the obvious decisions but terrible at finding useful outcomes for long term growth which require a degree of risk or loss before gain. https://www.businessinsider.com/how-netflix-uses-data-creative-decisions-renew-tv-films-analytics-2022-9
please do not start calling genres a "multiverse". it is very dumb. don't do this.
2.
While filming “Wall Street,” Douglas later recalled, director Oliver Stone asked him: “Are you doing drugs? Because you look like you’ve never acted before in your life.”
He wanted "more anger. .. I worked my ass off after that.”
And if you'd like to read about how the cops misuse broad data collection, here are the sources on that: https://context.center/topics/law-enforcement-and-data/
If you'd like to read more on this, here are my sources: https://context.center/topics/privacy/
“Ever wonder why fund managers can’t beat the S&P 500? ‘Cause they’re sheep. And sheep get slaughtered.”
Happy 78th, Michael Douglas. 💰
“Wall Street” (1987)
So let's drop this high school debate club bullshit and talk about the issues, tactics to resolve them, and the obstacles ahead. The only points you are scoring are on yourself.
Real privacy, enacted broadly, will be better for advertisers and better for users, but, importantly, it is the right thing to do in a healthy society.
Billions of dollars are lost to fraud and governments have a way to bypass laws *we put in place* to limit their surveillance capabilities. Who wouldn't want to fix that except the types of folks who already hoard power beyond 99.999999999% of us?
The black box in the center of ad tech is taking our information and using it in ways not justifiable for the people who pay for it or the users it is supposed to serve ads to.
You can call it precision targeting or surveillance capitalism, but arguing over the name is silly. What's clear is that it a system that serves advertisers and users worst of all. Why should a system that is bad for its most valued participants be allowed to persist as is? ...
The struggles many of us have w/privacy right now are a tax on our capabilities, our time, & our ability to achieve. The time we spend on selecting browsers, negotiating VPNs, dodging pop ups, etc... is a tax on our time and further stratifies our society https://www.fastcompany.com/90317495/another-tax-on-the-poor-surrendering-privacy-for-survival
The data feedback at the level of detail currently in the system actually serves to reinforce bad biases marketers have and further remove them from potential audiences they have or could grow into, as I detail in this thread:
The cycle of marketing leading to more exclusive marketing leading to more stratified products is one that is both accelerated and tightened for the modern era of digital ad tech, and that can have proxy discriminatory results we don't think about at first.
So the lack of privacy in the ad tech ecosystem better serves the fraudsters than the advertisers. It is better for feeding back into systems of power and UX that limit us than it is for selling us things. And, political ad or not, it separates us https://theconversation.com/targeted-ads-isolate-and-divide-us-even-when-theyre-not-political-new-research-163669
More precise targeting of smaller groups is generally higher competition because of how they are also overlapping with other broader groups and creating competition and therefore more valuable and surprisingly easy to exploit. https://gizmodo.com/this-devious-and-mostly-legal-ad-scam-is-bleeding-small-1844633313
BUT the people who want to rip off advertising budgets ARE well served. They can figure out what makes a high value user & use precision in reverse to create automated tools that can take on or acquire the appearance of the individuals that comprise commonly targeted demographics
An ad targeter that wants to sell you a boat really has nothing that they're going to do with that level of detail. Marketers are mostly looking for broad demographics to target and for the most part are just going to be confused and likely unable to manage this level of detail.
Christopher Reeve would have turned 70 today.
He once explained why Superman is such an effective hero icon — especially in this era of fear and technological/social alienation.
#RIP 🙏🏼
The thing is the way and methods this data gets used have little to do with marketing. The truth of the matter is that, although the systems that enable NYT reporters to buy a dataset and track individuals are built for ads, they don't serve ads well. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/19/opinion/location-tracking-cell-phone.html?ref=oembed
OBVIOUSLY we can have free will and still have our choices limited, our lives curtailed, and our choices manipulated by systems of power. These are not contradictory. This isn't college debate club, you're not trying to win points w/a sudden Gotcha like you're Phoenix Wright.
As @robinberjon notes in his post, "asymmetries of power" created by some people owning all the data around you and you owning one of theirs is always going to create inhumane outcomes that manipulate and push people in particular directions.